Elon Musk Moves Mars Landing Target Year Forward By Two Years

Elon Musk with SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft in the background at NASA's Kennedy Space Center. Image: Reuters

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s (SpaceX) Chief Executive Officer Mr. Elon Musk has reiterated the visitor's planned kickoff flight to Mars. SpaceX, which was formed in 2002 by Musk to enable interplanetary spaceflight and bring downwards the cost of launching payloads to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and beyond has partially met the latter of these objectives. The visitor'southward Falcon 9 rocket lineup, the starting time of its kind in human history capable of successfully landing its outset stage booster brings down these costs past reducing the cost of re-manufacturing an entire rocket to conduct consecutive launches.

SpaceX will replace the Falcon ix with its Starship launch vehicle platform which volition mark a significant upgrade over its predecessors. This platform will serve as the vehicle for the visitor's interplanetary send plans, and Musk's comments about its first crewed flight to Mars came as he accepted German publishing house Axel Springer SE'southward Axel Springer Award in Berlin, Germany yesterday.

SpaceX Hopes To Ship Uncrewed Starship To Mars Past 2024 States Musk

The executive's comments come as SpaceX is gearing up to launch the Starship platform'southward first stage spacecraft which volition firm both crewed and cargo during future missions. This vehicle, also dubbed as Starship, volition use the visitor'due south next-generation Raptor engines, and it will also be a pregnant upgrade over its predecessor, the Dragon.

Musk's timeline for Starship's showtime crewed flight came as Axel's C.Eastward.O. Mr. Mathias Döpfner asked him what he "realistically" idea nearly the first human landing on Mars. To this, Musk replied that he felt "fairly confident nearly six years from now" following which he proceeded to highlight how the Earth and Martian orbits coming in sync will play a critical role in SpaceX'due south Starship mission timeline.

Specifically, according to Musk:

I think...I feel adequately confident about six years from at present. So every...the Mars...Earth-Mars synchronization occurs roughly every 26 months. Then we had one this year, this summer and that means in roughly like almost two years volition be another ane, and then 2 years afterward that. Then I think, I'd say if you lot say six years from at present I'd call back highly confident, if we get lucky maybe iv years. And then we desire to try to transport an uncrewed vehicle there in 2 years.

Musk during his conversation at the award anniversary with Axel Springer C.East.O. Mathias Döpfner. Prototype: Axel Springer Award 2020 Livestream on YouTube

Mission Goal Brought Forward By Two Years From Earlier Timeline Musk Highlighted In October

More than chiefly, Musk'southward comments also provided his company's target for the outset uncrewed Starship flight to the Martian surface. These stated timelines for both missions, crewed and uncrewed, are non the first time that the SpaceX chief has outlined them. However, these are significantly more optimistic than the previous timeline that the executive outlined at the Mars Society'southward 23rd Almanac Convention held in Oct.

Dorsum so, when the Mars Society'due south President Dr. Robert Zubrin asked him a similar question, Musk had stated that he expected Starship to make its first uncrewed flight to Mars in the second synchronization - or four years:

In fact, if we don't see something close to an exponential improvement in our rate of innovation, nosotros will non achieve Mars. Pure linear doesn't go in that location. Well, I'll exist dead anyhow if information technology's pure linear. If it's exponential we could get to Mars, we could probably send an uncrewed mission there in maybe iv years. At that place's a Mars conjunction every 26 months, there was ane this year then this ways in a couple of years there's some other one. Four years from now there'due south some other one. I call back nosotros got a fighting risk of making that second Mars transfer window [Accent ADDED]."

SpaceX's Raptor full-menstruum staged-combustion marsh gas fueled rocket engine during a static fire last year. The company's flying-worthy Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy platforms run on the Merlin engine lineup, with the Raptor dedicated to the Starship platform. (Paradigm: SpaceX)

Dorsum then he had conditioned SpaceX's ability to meet the 2d Mars window on the rate of innovation at the company. Musk's tone at the issue was conservative, in dissimilarity to his usual optimism of setting timelines - and this optimism seems to have returned equally he was awarded the 2020 Axel Spring Accolade.

More chiefly, the shift also highlights that perhaps the executive has been able to increase the rate of innovation that he stressed was of import for bringing forward the Mars mission timeline.

Moving forward from his mission timelines, Musk also highlighted his plans for going to orbit. When Döpfner asked him, "When will your showtime trip to orbit will take place?", he replied:

I don't know, peradventure in two or three years. I'thousand by and large concerned with developing the engineering science that can enable a lot of people to go to Mars and make life multi-planetary, have a base on the Moon, a city on Mars. I recall that it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as before long as possible.